Washington is watching Rubio vs. Demings

Floridians from the Keys to the Panhandle are being inundated with advertisements, arguments – and, as often as not, attacks – in one of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in the country this cycle. Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, Democratic challenger Val Demings and their allies have waged a contentious campaign war, all with their eyes on what its outcome means for their party in the state as well as how it tips the balance of power in Washington.

Despite the strengths that Demings has displayed on the campaign trail and the issue of abortion rallying voters on the left, Rubio is in a strong position to capitalize on his advantages, including dismay at the worsening economy, a backlash against the Biden administration and a resurgent Republican power structure in Florida. Indeed, polling has largely shown Rubio with a small but consistent lead over the past few months, and experts on both sides of the aisle consider Demings to be the underdog. 

Rubio, 51, is running for his third six-year term in the Senate. The son of Cuban immigrants and once viewed as a rising star in the Republican Party, he has remained a prominent figure in the Senate chambers and across the nation following his unsuccessful 2016 presidential run. His Florida political connections run deep; he was the first Cuban American to become speaker of the Florida House of Representatives back in 2006.

Demings, 65, currently represents Florida’s 10th Congressional District. She spent over 27 years in law enforcement before entering the political arena, most recently serving in the Orlando Police Department and making history as its first female chief of police from 2007 to 2011. 

Devon Cruz, Demings’ press secretary, told City & State she wants to fight to reduce the cost of goods, lower crime and protect the constitutional rights of all Floridians. “Chief Demings is running to represent all Floridians, while Marco Rubio continues to fail them every chance he gets,” Cruz said. “Floridians know this race is between a cop on the beat versus a career politician who doesn’t show up for work.”

Elizabeth Gregory, Rubio’s campaign communications director, said Florida voters are going to connect Demings to skyrocketing inflation, rising crime rates and other political conditions under the Biden Administration. “There's a clear contrast in this race between Marco Rubio, who repeatedly delivers results for the people of Florida, and Val Demings, a ‘Pelosi Puppet’ who votes for Biden's agenda 100% of the time and would be a rubber stamp for Democrats' radical agenda in the Senate,” she said.

Abortion, economy at issue

Ever since Roe v. Wade was overturned, abortion has been thrust front-and-center into national conversations about how it will affect this election cycle, and the Rubio-Demings race has been no exception. Demings has ramped up attacks on Rubio for his longtime anti-abortion stance, especially after he signed on as a co-sponsor to U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s national 15-week abortion ban bill. The incumbent responded by labeling Demings a “pro-abortion radical” who supports taxpayer-funded abortions.

Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant who directed President Obama’s 2008 campaign in Florida, said he believes Demings’ support of abortion access until viability, or when a fetus can survive outside of the womb, will boost her performance with suburban women and college educated Floridians. He believes both candidates hold their positions not for political points, but out of earnest belief. “I've known Senator Rubio since he was in the state house, and he's been pretty consistent over his career on issues of choice,” Schale said. “I suspect that his support of Graham’s legislation has less to do with politics and more to do with where he is on the issue.”

University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said Demings will likely receive a bump in the race because her position more closely aligns with the average Floridian. But it might not be enough to bring the race into her favor. “(About) 55% of Floridians support a woman's right to choose,” Jewett noted. “The big question is, how many voters are going to base their decision on that issue? We know that the majority of Floridians believe in that, but that we also have seen some polling that suggests abortion is not the No. 1 issue for most voters.”

A July University of South Florida survey about Florida voter attitudes showed that while abortion is on Floridians’ mind, it is secondary to other issues like crime and the economy. In the survey, likely voters were asked to identify the top three issues that would likely impact how they voted. While about a quarter of respondents listed abortion, 48% listed inflation, 46.8% listed the economy and 35.2% listed crime or gun violence.

Barney Bishop, a Democrat-turned-Republican lobbyist and political consultant and a former president of Associated Industries of Florida, said a lack of confidence in the national economy is going to hamstring Demings’ ability to build a coalition. “It's more than just Republicans thinking that the stock market and the economy isn't going in the right direction,” Bishop said. “Independents think so as well by a strong plurality. A lot of people believe we're going to go into a recession.”

In the USF survey, only 34.2% of Floridians surveyed gave President Joe Biden a positive approval for his performance on jobs and the economy. Evan Power, who leads the county parties as the Republican Party of Florida's “chair of chairs,” said it won’t be hard for voters to extend their disapproval of Biden to Demings. “Voters are going to go to their polling place and vote based on what they're feeling in the economy, from gas prices to milk, and those things (are) where the Biden administration has failed,” Power said. “Val Demings is 100% on board with the Biden administration and (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi.”

Schale believes, however, that neither abortion nor the economy will be big enough issues to tip the scales in Florida. “The state is just so big and complicated that it's always hard to say that just one thing is going to change a race, and I don’t think one or two issues will be the difference in the Rubio-Demings race,” he said.

Law enforcement background can be shield or sword 

Despite Demings’ law enforcement background, she has lagged behind Rubio when it comes to support from the state’s sworn law enforcement officers. Fifty-five of Florida’s 66 elected sheriffs (Miami-Dade county’s sheriff is appointed) have endorsed Rubio, as have organizations like the Florida Police Benevolent Association and Florida Fraternal Order of Police. Rubio has been leveraging those endorsements to try to undermine Demings’ law enforcement experience since the early stages of his campaign, while aso accusing her of supporting defunding police. One ad his campaign released in July opened with Bradford County Sheriff Gordon Smith saying, “Val Demings turned her back on law enforcement.”

Demings, a former Orlando police chief, shot back with her own ad featuring members of law enforcement, including Orange County Sheriff John Mina. “I’ve known Chief Demings for decades. She’s never changed, she’s the same person that I know as Chief of Police. You cannot question her commitment to public safety,” Mina says in the ad.

Jewett said Demings’ tenure as a police chief has enabled her to blunt some of the criticism Republicans have successfully used against Democrats in other states, meaning her opponent has had to hammer away even harder to make those attacks stick. “Rubio’s camp is trying to make this race not a referendum on Rubio's actions over the last six years as the incumbent, but trying to make it about Val Demings,” Jewett said. “However, her ability to blunt a lot of the law enforcement criticism makes her probably the best candidate Florida Democrats might have hoped for.”

Bishop, however, argues that Demings’ policing background makes her no different than other Democrats when it comes to policies on crime. “She has mimicked just what the national Democrats were saying about crime, and she didn't stand up and fight on behalf of respect for the law or law enforcement in Florida,” he said. The fact that she’s trying to parlay her law enforcement work into being a pro-law enforcement “is not the case at all,” he added.

Meanwhile, Power argues that crime and law enforcement will rank second only to the economy among issues most important to Florida voters. “It's an issue that rings home for Floridians, because they want law and order, not what's happening in New York or Chicago or California,” he said.

Where the money is

Yet while Republicans are dominating their rivals in fundraising across most competitive Florida state and national races, the Rubio-Demings race is one of the few exceptions. 

As of the most recently available campaign finance reporting, Demings has outraised Rubio $64 million to $44 million. Collectively, their race is the third most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country.

Over $34 million of Demings’ campaign funds, or 53.4% of her total, have come from individual contributions under $200, according to an analysis conducted by Open Secrets, a nonprofit organization that tracks campaign finance and lobbying. About 64%of Rubio's donations have come from big-dollar donors, with 59% of those out of state. Jewett said Rubio’s lag in fundraising suggests the Republican base isn’t fired up about his campaign.

“He doesn't seem as of this minute to have the enthusiasm, excitement and the loyalty of the Trump and DeSantis base in the Republican Party,” Jewett said. “That gives Democrats some hope.” Power, who has appeared at campaign events with Rubio, thinks that’s a flawed take because he has witnessed enthusiasm for the incumbent senator. “No matter what Republican you're looking at, you think, ‘Oh, well, he's not doing as well as the governor.’ But Gov. DeSantis is kind of a larger than life figure. Marco has strong support from our Republican base,” he said.

Matthew Isbell, a Democratic elections data consultant, said Rubio will also be boosted by the onslaught of pro-Republican ads hitting the airwaves on DeSantis’ record-breaking campaign war chest and could rely on party support if things get desperate. “Let's say the Rubio camp suddenly finds themselves strapped for cash, the Republican Party can write a $5 million, $10 million check for ads tomorrow,” Isbell said. “DeSantis has more money than God. He's flushing the airwaves with his ads. How many people are voting for DeSantis, but then voting for Demings?”

Looking ahead to November

Despite her money lead and some perceived policy advantages, experts and consultants for both parties recognize that Demings is the underdog. Jewett believes that Rubio’s incumbent status, a Republican voter registration advantage, and the historic cycle of candidates from the president’s party being disadvantaged in the midterms will likely be too much for Demings to overcome.

Schale said Demings is facing adverse trends for the Democratic Party in the state, including eroding support from Hispanics and among residents in Pasco, Sarasota and Brevard counties since Trump first won Florida in 2016. “For Val to win, she's got to reverse some of the trends that have been working against Democrats in those suburban and Hispanic communities,” he said.

Isbell said ultimately the race will likely be decided not by the strength of either candidate, but by which party voters want to control the U.S. House and Senate for the next two years. “Demings is certainly doing very well for all the money she has and being a very aggressive campaigner,” Isbell said. “But at the end of the day, it's going to still be partly determined by the national mood.”

One the Republican side, Bishop predicted that the race would be close, but ultimately be decided by three or four points in Rubio’s favor. Power predicted not just a Rubio victory, but victories for Republicans across the ticket. “We're gonna win both Senate seats with a reelected Marco Rubio. And then we're gonna have a Republican majority in the House, thanks to returning our Republican representatives,” he said. “I think it's the first time we're gonna see what a truly red Florida looks like.”